New figures published Monday by the World Health Organization reveal a far worse outlook than it had previously anticipated for the Ebola epidemic in West Africa.
In addition to predicting many more cases and deaths, the new report for the first time raises the possibility that the epidemic will not be brought under control and that the disease will become endemic in West Africa, meaning that it could reach a steady state and become a constant presence there.
“The epidemiologic outlook is bleak,” the report said.
If control does not improve now, there will be more than 20,000 cases by Nov. 2, and the numbers of cases and deaths will continue increasing from hundreds to thousands per week for months to come, according to the report. The death rate is about 70 percent in each of the heavily affected countries, Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone.
The new estimates were published online in The New England Journal of Medicine by a team of more than 50 scientists. An
earlier prediction by the health organization was far less dire, saying there might be 20,000 cases in nine months.
the current epidemiologic outlook is bleak. Forward projections suggest that unless control measures — including improvements in contact tracing, adequate case isolation, increased capacity for clinical management, safe burials, greater community engagement, and support from international partners — improve quickly, these three countries will soon be reporting thousands of cases and deaths each week
Ebola Cases Could Reach 1.4 Million in 4 Months, C.D.C. Estimates
Yet another set of ominous projections about the Ebola epidemic in West Africa was released Tuesday, in a report from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention that gave worst- and best-case estimates for Liberia and Sierra Leone based on computer modeling.
In the worst-case scenario, Liberia and Sierra Leone could have 21,000 cases of Ebola by Sept. 30 and 1.4 million cases by Jan. 20 if the disease keeps following its current trajectory, without effective methods to contain it. These figures take into account the fact that many cases go undetected, and estimate that there are actually 2.5 times as many as reported.
In the best-case model — which assumes that the dead are buried safely and that 70 percent of patients are treated in settings that reduce the risk of transmission — the epidemic in both countries would be “almost ended” by Jan. 20, the report said.
Fresh Graves Point to Undercount of Ebola Toll
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